This question is complex: there is no direct
relationship between transmission and its consequences on health.
To be able to discuss the relationships between transmission,
morbidity and mortality means, at the outset, being able to
distinguish:
- The high and average endemic areas, in which transmission rates
are always greater than one Anopheles mosquito bite infected by
Human (PAIH), per annum.
- The low endemic areas, in which transmission is lower than in
the previous areas, with at times large inter-annual
variations.
- The epidemic areas, in which transmission is an abnormal
phenomenon from which there is every chance of escape during the
course of a human lifetime.
In the areas of high transmission, a single infected bite rarely
brings on a malarial attack. This is due to the gradual acquisition
of immunity, a special state which provides a relatively
efficacious protection against the disease, but insufficient to
eliminate all the parasites. This immunity may only be acquired and
maintained by multiple re-infections, on an almost permanent basis
between Man and his parasite. In these areas of high transmission,
it occurs in a few years at a very young age, to such an extent,
that it is estimated that from five years of age, the risk of death
from malaria is very low. Hence, it is easy to understand why, in a
context of intense and permanent transmission, the majority of
cases of morbidity and almost all the cases of mortality are
concentrated among young children.
In low endemic areas and epidemic areas, the situation is much
different: a single infected bite frequently causing a malarial
attack. The contact between Man and his parasite is not frequent
enough for the state of immunity to be built. All age groups are
concerned by malaria and the risk of death.
In any event, no transmission rate is acceptable in terms of public
health. Whatever the transmission rate, the consequences are always
dramatic on all or a part of the human population.